Designing for the domino effect
# Why a single ETA change breaks maritime logistics
The small talk that isn't small at all
There is nothing an Englishman enjoys more than talking about the weather. We have, in fact, developed an entire language to describe the infinite nuances between "drizzly" and "spitting."
But what happens when the weather stops being small talk? What happens when a sudden, unforecasted change in the weather has the power to light the fuse on a multi-million dollar chain reaction?
The first domino: A storm brews in the South China Sea
It starts, as it so often does, with the weather. A storm is brewing in the South China Sea, a menacing grey monster that wasn't flagged on the forecast.
On the bridge of a container ship, the Captain sees the updated report and makes the call: he has to slow down. It's an essential, unavoidable decision, made purely for the safety of his crew and vessel. He unknowingly lights the fuse on a logistical bomb a thousand miles away.
The real problem: An industry built on a lie
This, I think, is the problem here in a nutshell. The simple, accepted truth is that the entire global shipping industry is sat on a creaking, fragmented, and fundamentally untrustworthy information system.
The "official" ETA in the public domain is often a work of fiction, a placeholder cobbled together for a contract. Real-time, operational truth is siloed away in countless different systems, spreadsheets, and in-boxes.
When a genuine change happens, nobody is prepared, and everyone is working with different information.
"Designing for the domino effect means understanding that no feature exists in a vacuum. It’s the difference between building a small, elegant cog and engineering a machine that actually works."
The solution: Surfacing what matters within a conversation
The job of a systems designer isn't to build another tap for a Master to type an ETA into. The job is to make it unnecessary. It's to understand that this one piece of data is the lynchpin for a dozen other critical decisions made by a dozen other people.
When the Master updates the ETA in a system we've designed, it doesn't just change a number. It simultaneously communicates the reason for the change ("Delay due to heavy weather for safety") to the entire chain.
It replaces a frustrated, reactive response with an informed, collaborative conversation. It turns chaos into proactive problem-solving.
See this philosophy in action
This entire article is the "why" behind my "spreadsheet-killer" case study.
The original MVP I inherited was a perfect example of a "cargo cult" product: a perfect, ritualistic design that completely misunderstood the real business problem. It was a straw runway destined to fail.
Seeing the whole machine
Designing for the domino effect means looking beyond the immediate screen and seeing the entire, deeply interconnected system of people trying to do their job. It's the difference between building a small, elegant cog and engineering a machine that actually works.
